What are the clues for investment in 2025? Dai Yi of Changsheng Fund: Technological growth may still

In the past 2024, AI+ became one of the important investment themes. Entering 2025, AI still performs outstandingly. Many investors pay more attention to the AI market performance and investment opportunities after the Spring Festival.

Recently, Dai Yi, manager of Changsheng Urbanization Fund, reviewed the past AI market trends and looked forward to future investment strategies at the Changsheng Fund's 2025 Investment Strategy Conference.

In Dai Yi's view, computing power is the foundation of the entire AI investment, but judging from the current development of AI, the proportion of terminal applications will gradually increase in the future, and the proportion of terminals in the investment structure will also increase accordingly. For this reason, Dai Yi summarized the fund investment strategy for 2025 as "computing power as the basis and terminals as the winners".

According to statistics from Haitong Securities, as of the end of 2024, Changsheng Urbanization Theme A (000354) managed by Dai Yi focuses on high-quality hardware stocks in the fields of AI-related computing power, AI application terminals, robots, etc. at home and abroad. The annual yield in 2024 reached 39.23%, ranking in the top 30 (30/3508) among the 3,508 comparable funds in the same period.

Technological growth may still be the main theme in 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Dai Yi believes that technological growth may still be the main theme. From a fundamental perspective, since China's economy is already very large, policy stimulus is unlikely to have an immediate effect on the economy as in the past, but the continued increase in positive and economically friendly policies will also have a cumulative effect on the economy, and the economy is expected to achieve a moderate recovery in 2025. At the same time, stabilizing the property and stock markets is of great significance to stabilizing economic growth and residents' balance sheets, and provides a bottom line for the operation of the capital market.

Although the recent Central Economic Work Conference put consumption before technology, Dai Yi pointed out that this is actually good for technology. "Because only after consumption has laid a solid foundation for the economy, can technology develop faster.

Moreover, the process of recovery from low inflation may be a process of positive stock-bond correlation. After the correction, we will see the stock-bond yield spread cross -2X standard deviation and repair to -1X standard deviation. Dai Yi further stated that as a professional fund manager, the key is to find the stage from 1 to 10 of the industry, which is expected to form the industry investment opportunity of Davis double-click. It can be inferred from this that the development of the AI industry is clearer and more flexible.

AI is the next generation super portal, and there may be opportunities for counterattack on the application side

Looking back at the past AI market, Dai Yi believes that AI investment has now entered a stage where computing power and terminal applications go hand in hand. At the end of 2024, the investment enthusiasm for domestic computing power, terminal side and robots began. From the past history, the birth of every great company requires a terminal migration, either to define a terminal or to be an indispensable part of a terminal with huge demand.

"If AI is the next revolution in productivity, then a super portal will inevitably be created in the terminal, which will lead to great changes." However, Dai Yi also pointed out that the penetration of AI is a long and arduous process. The United States has been in the computing power competition for 6 to 8 months on the hardware side, and still continues to have high-intensity capital expenditures. my country's large network companies have begun to accelerate their computing power investment since 2024. Drawing on the counterattack of the domestic application side of the mobile Internet wave, Dai Yi predicts that the AI wave also has the opportunity to counterattack on the application side.

Regarding the focus of subsequent terminals, Dai Yi focused on analyzing Apple's industrial chain and robots. First of all, Dai Yi expects that after the Spring Festival, Apple's iOS18 full version Agent will make progress. Its innovation is expected to drive the growth of the entire smartphone terminal. For this reason, he is firmly optimistic about the industrial wave brought by AI mobile phones and their peripheral terminals.

On the other hand, Dai Yi believes that robots currently have certain perception capabilities and are at the conditional autonomy stage. The intelligence level is transitioning from L3 to L4, and robots can complete some tasks based on preset low-level actions.

Dai Yi predicts that 2025 will be the first year of mass production of robots, with industrial scenarios being the priority. The robotics industry is on the eve of mass production, and humanoid robots are currently being piloted on a small scale in specific areas such as industrial manufacturing, security patrols, logistics distribution, and service industries.

Dai Yi believes that the current trend of the humanoid robot industry has gradually formed a consensus, and the sector has moved out of the conceptual stage and switched to value investment. The market focuses on mass production and commercialization. Focusing on the domestic industrial chain, which is now blooming in multiple places, Dai Yi believes that robot terminals are expected to bring some unexpected surprises to AI investment this year.

Portfolio construction: top-down industrial policy research + mid-term industry comparison

When talking about how to build an investment portfolio, Dai Yi said that from the perspective of value investment, one needs to stick to one's own cognition; at the same time, as a growth-oriented fund manager, one needs to get closer to the market's cognition. In the long term, Dai Yi is optimistic about the growth of technology, and in the medium term, one needs to make good industry comparisons. In terms of investment strategy construction, the main focus is on the logic of industry selection and tiered configuration comparison, and in-depth exploration of investment opportunities in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the industrial chain.

Specifically, Dai Yi tends to select several most certain investment directions from the mainstream investment directions at the beginning of each year based on national policies and financial support; through the three types of indicators of total volume, year-on-year and month-on-month in the three dimensions of macro, industry and fundamentals, he characterizes the three demand analysis characteristics of the industry: demand, supply and cost.

In the past few years, AI is in line with national industrial policies and development trends, so AI is selected as the main investment direction. After selecting the direction, we deeply explore the diffusion rotation logic of the upstream, midstream and downstream of the industrial chain, as well as the rotation of individual stocks of first- and second-tier stocks in the sector. From the vertical and horizontal dimensions, we use the supply and demand relationship to extend to the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain; in the entire industrial logic selection process, the core variables that Dai Yi focuses on are the links with more pricing power in the industrial chain, where demand is relatively rigid and upstream costs are controllable. At the same time, we qualitatively analyze companies and select leading stocks.